Aston Villa in Top 8 Contention as Europa League 2025/26 League Phase Enters Critical Stage

Nov, 28 2025

With just three matchdays left in the 2025/26 UEFA Europa League league phase, Aston Villa is clinging to a top-eight spot — and with it, a direct path to the Round of 16. Under manager Unai Emery, the English side sits sixth with nine points from four games, having won three and lost one. But the race is tight. One slip, one missed chance, and they could tumble into the unpredictable chaos of the play-off round. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest, in 23rd place, is teetering just above the elimination zone, their survival hanging by a thread. The stakes? Nothing less than European survival — or worse, a dead-end exit with no fallback to the Conference League. This isn’t just football. It’s a high-stakes chess match played across six continents.

The New Format: No Second Chances

For the first time in its modern history, the Europa League has scrapped the old group stage for a single 36-team league phase. Win, lose, or draw — every point matters. The top eight qualify automatically for the Round of 16. Teams ranked ninth through 24th fight in two-legged play-offs on February 19 and 26, 2026. But here’s the brutal twist: teams finishing 25th to 36th are out. No Conference League lifeline. No redemption. Just silence. It’s a brutal meritocracy. One bad month, and your European season is over. No second chances. No mercy.

Who’s Leading? The Standings Puzzle

As of November 28, 2025, official UEFA.com rankings show Lyon on top with 13 points, followed by FC Midtjylland, Aston Villa, and SC Freiburg. But Fotmob’s version flips the script: Midtjylland leads, Freiburg is second, and Villa drops to sixth. Why the discrepancy? Because some platforms update in real-time after matchday results, while others lag. The truth? It’s messy. And that’s exactly what makes this phase so thrilling. Matchday 5 on November 27, 2025, delivered chaos: Roma stunned Midtjylland 2-1, while Bologna crushed RB Salzburg 4-1 — a result Flashscore.com confirmed minutes after full-time. Even SC Freiburg had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Viktoria Plzeň, a result that cost them precious momentum.

Aston Villa’s Path to the Top Eight

Unai Emery’s side has been a model of efficiency. Three wins, one loss — all in four games. But their remaining fixtures are a gauntlet. They host RB Salzburg on November 27, 2025, then travel to Fenerbahçe on December 11. After that, it’s home to Young Boys on January 22, and a final away trip to Basel on January 29. The Young Boys game could be decisive. Win that one, and Villa likely seals a top-eight spot. Lose, and they’ll be sweating through the play-offs. Emery knows it. His players know it. The fans in Villa Park? They’ve started wearing their lucky scarves again — the ones from the 2019 Europa League run.

Nottingham Forest: The Tightrope Walk

One win. Two draws. One loss. That’s Nottingham Forest’s record. They’re 23rd — two places above the drop zone. Their remaining games are brutal: home against Ferencváros, away at Braga, then home to Malmö and away at Utrecht. Ferencváros, currently third on Fotmob’s table, are in form. Braga? They’ve won three of their last four. Forest’s survival hinges on one thing: not losing at home. They’ve drawn both their home games so far. If they can get a win against Ferencváros on November 27, it could be the turning point. If not? The season could end in January — not with a flourish, but a whimper.

The European Underdogs: Rangers, Celtic, and the Fight to Survive

Rangers are in a similar boat. Their remaining fixtures — away at Porto, home to Braga, away at Ferencváros, and home to Ludogorets Razgrad — are a minefield. Porto, after their 3-0 win over Nice, look like a top-eight contender. Rangers need points, and fast. Meanwhile, Celtic face a tough run: home to Roma on Matchday 5, then away at Feyenoord. Their 1-1 draw with Red Star Belgrade on Matchday 1 feels like a missed opportunity now. They’re sitting on seven points. One more win could lift them into the top 16. Two losses? They’re out.

What’s at Stake Beyond the Table

This isn’t just about European glory. It’s about money. TV rights. Squad development. Youth recruitment. A top-eight finish in the Europa League brings an estimated £15 million in revenue — more than some Championship clubs earn in a season. For smaller clubs like FC Midtjylland or SC Freiburg, it’s a lifeline. For clubs like Aston Villa, it’s about maintaining momentum ahead of next season’s Premier League campaign. And for the bottom 12? Elimination means lost revenue, fewer scouts on the ground, and a demoralized squad heading into January transfer windows with no European incentive.

What’s Next? The Countdown to February

The next three matchdays — December 11, January 22, and January 29 — will decide everything. By the end of January, we’ll know who’s in the last 16, who’s fighting for survival in the play-offs, and who’s packing their bags for home. The play-off draw will happen on February 7, 2026, and the two-legged ties on February 19 and 26. After that? The knockout rounds begin. The pressure is building. The stakes have never been higher. And for the first time in years, the Europa League feels like the most unpredictable tournament in European football.